<figure class="image-550">
<img src="https://cdn.kahimyang.com/resources-28/sara-duterte.webp" alt="Vice President Sara Duterte smiling while speaking into a microphone at a podium, wearing a blue polo shirt featuring the Office of the Vice President logo." loading="lazy" />
<figcaption>
Vice President Sara Duterte, who remains the front-runner for the 2028 presidential election with a 43%  preference rating as of March 2026. Despite facing active impeachment hearings regarding the alleged misuse of confidential funds, she continues to maintain a high approval rating of 55% nationwide.
</figcaption>
</figure>

<h2>
The Foundation of the Duterte Political Capital
</h2>
<p>
To understand the current presidential prospects of Sara Duterte, it is necessary to examine the historical and biographical context that provides her with a resilient base of support. Born on <time datetime="1978-05-31">May 31, 1978</time>, Sara Duterte is a lawyer by profession who served as a Court Attorney in the Supreme Court of the Philippines in 2006 before transitioning into the family's traditional arena of local politics in Davao City. Her political identity was forged during her tenure as Vice Mayor (2007–2010) and subsequently as the first female and youngest Mayor of Davao City beginning in 2010.   
</p>
<p>
Her leadership in Davao was characterized by the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Byaheng_DO30" class="news-link-ext" target="_blank" rel="noreferrer noopener">Byaheng Do30</a> agenda, which focused on thirty specific projects across ten priority sectors, including education, health, poverty alleviation, and infrastructure. Under her administration, Davao City was ranked as the 4th Most Competitive Highly Urbanized City in the Philippines by the Department of Trade and Industry. These local successes allowed her to cultivate a national reputation as a "Top Performing Mayor," achieving a 93% approval rating in independent surveys by 2021.   
</p>
<p>
The Vice President's current standing is deeply rooted in this perception of executive competence and the "Duterte brand" of governance, which emphasizes decisive action and a "tough-on-crime" approach. This legacy is a critical component of her current polling dominance, as a significant portion of the electorate views her as the continuation of the policies established by her father, former President <a href="/kauswagan/articles/2790/today-in-philippine-history-march-28-1945-rodrigo-roa-duterte-16th-president-of-the-philippines-was-born-in-maasin-leyte" class="news_link">Rodrigo Duterte</a>.   
</p>
<h2>
The 2022 Mandate and the Dissolution of UniTeam
</h2>
<p>
The 2022 national elections saw the formation of the "UniTeam," an electoral alliance between the Marcos and Duterte dynasties that was designed to consolidate the Northern and Southern voting blocs. This alliance was successful, with Ferdinand Marcos Jr. winning the presidency with over 30 million votes (approximately 58%) and Sara Duterte securing the vice presidency with over 32 million votes (roughly 61%). This represented the first time in the post-EDSA era that a president and vice president were elected by an absolute majority.   
</p>
<p>
However, the UniTeam was an alliance of convenience rather than programmatic unity. The relationship began to deteriorate almost immediately due to divergent views on foreign policy, particularly regarding China and the United States, and domestic issues such as the International Criminal Court (ICC) investigation into the previous administration's "War on Drugs".   
</p>

<div class="table-wrapper">
  <table>
    <caption>Table 1: Key Milestones in the Collapse of the UniTeam Alliance</caption>
    <thead>
      <tr>
        <th>Date</th>
        <th>Event</th>
        <th>Significance</th>
      </tr>
    </thead>
    <tbody>
      <tr>
        <td>May 2023</td>
        <td>Resignation from Lakas-CMD</td>
        <td>Signaled the initial rift with House Speaker Martin Romualdez.</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
        <td>June 2024</td>
        <td>Resignation as Education Secretary</td>
        <td>Marked her formal exit from the Marcos Cabinet.</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
        <td>Nov 2024</td>
        <td>Assassination Threat Statement</td>
        <td>Public declaration of the deep personal rift with the President and First Lady.</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
        <td>March 2025</td>
        <td>Arrest of Rodrigo Duterte</td>
        <td>The administration's cooperation with the ICC was viewed as a final betrayal.</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
        <td>Feb 2026</td>
        <td>Presidential Declaration</td>
        <td>Formal entry into the 2028 race as an opposition figure.</td>
      </tr>
    </tbody>
  </table>
</div>

<p>
By March 2026, the Vice President has transitioned from a governing partner to the de facto leader of the opposition. Her rhetoric now focuses on "returning courage" to governance, framing her candidacy as a challenge to the "Manila-centric" political establishment.   
</p>
<h2>
Analysis of Current Presidential Polling Data
</h2>
<p>
Despite the significant controversies and the shift to the opposition, Sara Duterte remains the statistical front-runner for the 2028 presidency. Polling data from early 2026 indicates that her support base is not only stable but may be growing as she adopts a more adversarial stance.
</p>


<h3 class="my-h3">
Comparative Presidential Preference Polls
</h3>
<p>
A Tangere survey conducted between February 19 and February 20, 2026 - immediately following her official declaration - shows her with a commanding lead.   
</p>

<div class="table-wrapper">
  <table>
    <caption>Table 2: Comparative Presidential Preference Survey Results (Feb 2026 vs Nov 2025)</caption>
    <thead>
      <tr>
        <th>Candidate</th>
        <th>Party/Affiliation</th>
        <th>Feb 2026 (Tangere)</th>
        <th>Nov 2025 (WR Numero)</th>
      </tr>
    </thead>
    <tbody>
      <tr>
        <td>Sara Duterte</td>
        <td>Hugpong ng Pagbabago</td>
        <td>43%</td>
        <td>33.3%</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
        <td>Raffy Tulfo</td>
        <td>Independent</td>
        <td>27%</td>
        <td>13.0%</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
        <td>Isko Moreno</td>
        <td>Aksyon Demokratiko</td>
        <td>15%</td>
        <td>N/A</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
        <td>Risa Hontiveros</td>
        <td>Akbayan</td>
        <td>3%</td>
        <td>2.4%</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
        <td>Bam Aquino</td>
        <td>KANP</td>
        <td>N/A</td>
        <td>2.0%</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
        <td>Undecided / Others</td>
        <td>-</td>
        <td>12%</td>
        <td>22.2%</td>
      </tr>
    </tbody>
  </table>
</div>

<p>
The 10% increase in her preference between November 2025 and February 2026 suggests that the announcement of her candidacy and the heightened visibility of the impeachment proceedings have served to consolidate her support among voters who feel alienated by the current administration.   
</p>
<p>
However, the political landscape is highly sensitive to changes in the candidate field. Senator Raffy Tulfo, who consistently ranked as a top choice in earlier surveys, officially announced on March 2, 2026, that he would not seek the presidency or vice presidency in 2028, opting instead to run for reelection in the Senate. His withdrawal is a critical factor for the 2028 race, as it leaves a significant portion of the "populist" vote - roughly 27% - unclaimed. Historically, Tulfo's supporters have a socio-economic profile similar to the Duterte base (Class D and E), suggesting that many may migrate to Sara Duterte in the absence of a viable alternative.   
</p>
<h3 class="my-h3">
Regional and Socio-Economic Approval Ratings
</h3>
<p>
The 2028 race is being heavily influenced by regionalism. The Philippines is currently witnessing a sharp divide in how the President and Vice President are perceived across the country's major island groups.   
</p>

<div class="table-wrapper">
  <table>
    <caption>Table 3: Comparative Regional Approval Ratings (March 2026)</caption>
    <thead>
      <tr>
        <th>Island Group</th>
        <th>Marcos Approval (March 2026)</th>
        <th>Duterte Approval (March 2026)</th>
      </tr>
    </thead>
    <tbody>
      <tr>
        <td>National Average</td>
        <td>36%</td>
        <td>55%</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
        <td>Metro Manila</td>
        <td>40%</td>
        <td>42%</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
        <td>Balance Luzon</td>
        <td>50%</td>
        <td>36%</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
        <td>Visayas</td>
        <td>N/A (Low)</td>
        <td>56%</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
        <td>Mindanao</td>
        <td>26%</td>
        <td>97%</td>
      </tr>
    </tbody>
  </table>
</div>

<p>
The Vice President's approval rating in Mindanao remains nearly absolute at 97%, providing her with a fortress of support that any challenger will find difficult to penetrate. In contrast, the President's approval has collapsed in Mindanao to 26%, largely due to the perception that his administration has targeted the Duterte family. In Balance Luzon, the President remains more popular than the Vice President, indicating that the 2028 election may once again become a battle between regional strongholds.   
</p>
<h2>
The Impeachment Challenge: Legal and Political Mechanics
</h2>
<p>
The most significant immediate obstacle to Sara Duterte's election is the ongoing effort to impeach her. As of March 2026, she is facing a second round of impeachment complaints in the House of Representatives. If convicted by the Senate, she would be removed from office and disqualified from holding any public position, effectively ending her 2028 bid.   
</p>
<h3 class="my-h3">
Current Status of the 2026 Impeachment
</h3>
<p>
The House Committee on Justice is currently processing two active complaints after two others were either set aside or withdrawn.   
</p>
<ul class="k-list">
<li>
<b>Sufficiency in Form</b>: Declared on March 2, 2026.   
</li>
<li>
<b>Sufficiency in Substance</b>: Declared on March 4, 2026.   
</li>
<li>
<b>Sufficiency in Grounds</b>: Declared on March 18, 2026.   
</li>
<li>
<b>Hearing Proper</b>: Scheduled to begin on March 25, 2026.   
</li>
</ul>
<p>
The grounds for impeachment are multifaceted, involving allegations of betrayal of public trust, bribery, graft, and corruption. Specifically, the complaints focus on the alleged misuse of PhP612 million in confidential funds during her time as Vice President and Secretary of Education. A key piece of evidence in the proceedings is the PhP125 million in confidential funds that the Office of the Vice President (OVP) reportedly spent in just 11 days in December 2022.   
</p>
<h3 class="my-h3">
The Role of the Senate
</h3>
<p>
If the House plenary votes to impeach, the case will move to the Senate for trial. A two-thirds vote (16 out of 24 senators) is required for conviction. The current Senate has shown some resistance to the impeachment effort. The Senate Finance Committee, for instance, swiftly approved the OVP's 2026 budget of PhP902.8 million in early March 2026, with little opposition from the Vice President's allies. Senators such as Robin Padilla, Imee Marcos, and Bong Go are viewed as "reliable votes" for the Vice President, making the required two-thirds majority for conviction a significant hurdle for the administration.   
</p>
<h2>
The Confidential Funds and Budgetary Controversies
</h2>
<p>
The use of confidential funds (CF) has become the primary legislative weapon used against the Vice President. In August 2022, she requested PhP250 million in CF from the Department of Budget and Management (DBM), ultimately receiving PhP125 million from the President's Contingent Fund.   
</p>


<div class="table-wrapper">
  <table>
    <caption>Table 4: Office of the Vice President Budgetary Allotments and Confidential Fund Components (2022–2026)</caption>
    <thead>
      <tr>
        <th>Fiscal Year</th>
        <th>OVP Budget (Approved)</th>
        <th>Confidential Fund Component</th>
      </tr>
    </thead>
    <tbody>
      <tr>
        <td>2022</td>
        <td>PhP702 million</td>
        <td>PhP125 million (Augmented)</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
        <td>2023</td>
        <td>PhP2.3 billion</td>
        <td>PhP500 million</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
        <td>2024</td>
        <td>PhP1.8 billion</td>
        <td>PhP0 (Stripped by House)</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
        <td>2025</td>
        <td>PhP733 million</td>
        <td>PhP0</td>
      </tr>
      <tr>
        <td>2026 (Proposed)</td>
        <td>PhP902.8 million</td>
        <td>PhP0</td>
      </tr>
    </tbody>
  </table>
</div>

<p>
The stripping of her confidential funds in 2024 by lawmakers led by House Speaker Martin Romualdez was a turning point, with the Vice President responding that it was "no time for politicking". By 2026, her budget has been stabilized at approximately PhP903 million, but without the discretionary confidential funds that were central to her "Good Governance" programs. The defense team, led by Atty. Michael Poa, has dismissed the allegations as "speculations and self-serving conjectures," arguing that the movement of money is not proof of illegality.   
</p>


Sara Duterte's 2028 Presidential Odds: March 2026 Analysis


Sara Duterte leads 2028 polls with 43%. Can she survive the 2026 impeachment and UniTeam collapse to win the presidency? Read our analysis.


Political Viability and Presidential Prospects of Sara Duterte