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<img src="https://cdn.kahimyang.com/resources-13/bbm-inday-sm.webp" alt="Bongbong Marcos and Sarah Duterte" loadiing="lazy"/>
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(Bongbong Marcos and Sarah Duterte)
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The two combine the strongest voting regions in the Philippines today-the Ilocano Solid North of Marcos Jr. and the Cebuano Solid South of Mayor Duterte, the feisty daughter of the incumbent president.


Bongbong and Sara consolidate the two hottest political brands in the country-Marcos and Duterte.


The late Ferdinand Marcos was president for 20 years, from 1966 to February 1986. Rodrigo Duterte has a term of six years, until noon of June 30, 2022. Both Marcos and Duterte are considered very good presidents for their solid achievements. Digong, of course, is backing Senator Bong Go for president. In love, war, business and politics, black is thicker than water.


About 27 percent of Filipinos come from the so-called Solid North. Assuming a voter turnout of 50 million on election day, 27 percent is about 13.5 million votes. Of that easily 90 percent are diehards of the Marcos brand. That means 12.15 million votes.


At the same time, 25 percent of Filipinos speak Cebuano, equivalent to at least 12.5 million votes. Using President Duterte's 67 percent job approval rating, we can assume 8.375 million hard Duterte voters. Most of those votes should go to Sara as vice president.



Combined, the 12.15 million Bongbong votes and 8.375 million Duterte votes make for a formidable 20.525 million votes at the starting gate.


Bicol's Vice President Leni Robredo can count on 2.45 million Bicolano voters. They are 98 percent loyal to any Bicolano candidate.

However, 4 percent of Filipinos or 2 million voters are Waray, those who come from Samar and Leyte provinces and will likely vote for BBM-Sara.


Such an ethnic distribution - 27 percent Ilocano, 25 percent Cebuano, 5 percent Bicolano, and 4 percent Waray-leaves the other regions as battleground areas, to consolidate one's formidable Ilocano-Cebuano base (20.525 million) for Bongbong or reinforce Leni's puny base of 2.4 million Bicolano votes at the starting gate.


During the next five months of campaigning, Bongbong and Sara only need to garner from 10 percent to 20 percent of the votes of Metro Manila, balance of Luzon and the balance of the Visayas and Mindanao to ensure victory.


These battleground regions have 40 percent of the remaining voters, or a total 20 million, of whom 12 million are Tagalog voters.


Tagalog voters have no particular loyalty to any non-Tagalog candidate.



In the SWS October 2021 survey, Bongbong Marcos garnered 47 percent or 29.28 million possible votes; Vice President Robredo 18 percent or 11.13 million votes, Manila Mayor Isko Moreno Domagoso 13 percent or 8.25 million votes, boxing champion Senator Manny Pacquiao 9 percent or 5.7 million votes, and Senator Panfilo Lacson 4 percent or 2.99 million votes. SWS uses the whole voter base, not the voter turnout.


For vice president, Senate President Tito Sotto leads with 44 percent (27.36 million votes). Inday Sara is a distant second, with 25 percent (15.47 million votes). Leni's running mate, Senator Kiko Pangilinan and Isko Moreno's running mate, Dr. Willie Ong, share third place, each with 13 percent or 7.82 million votes.


After 35 years, Filipinos have discounted the Marcos legacy of alleged plunder, human rights violations, and abuses of a dictatorship in a 20-year reign. According to one analyst:

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"People have had a catharsis, what remains are pure emotion and sentimentality: Most Filipinos like Marcos."

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Since 1898, the Philippines has had 16 presidents. Six of them were Ilocanos, Ilocano-speaking or had Ilocano roots.


They are: Elpidio Quirino of Ilocos Sur, Ramon Magsaysay of Zambales, Carlos P. Garcia of Bohol (both his parents were from Abra), Ferdinand Marcos of Ilocos Norte, Fidel V. Ramos of Pangasinan, and Gloria Macapagal Arroyo of Pangasinan and Pampanga.

FORMIDABLE: Ilocano Solid North of Marcos Jr. and the Cebuano Solid South of Mayor Duterte